Groundhog Predictions

I've been meaning to add a few new rants here, but I tend to forget to write them. Don't worry, this post is not about snow days or the hours of work I lost again yesterday (I accepted that the roads were actually too bad for travel; I'm dealing with the loss). Instead, I'd like to write a little something about Groundhog Day.

I don't mean the Bill Murray film either (though I did watch that this weekend!).

I'm not sure I completely understand the value of this tradition. I know the idea is that, originally, the groundhog would leave its home, see its shadow, and run back inside, meaning that there would be six more weeks of winter. I guess groundhogs don't like the cold much. If, on the other hand, the little guy stayed outside because he had no shadow, then we would have an "early" spring.

When I was a kid, I decided that, logically, that meant that a sunny February 2nd would mean a long winter, while a cloudy one meant an early spring. As I grew and continued to attempt to work out the logic of this long-held tradition, I realized that the weather would be different in different places, so an "early spring" here might be a long winter across the country. How does that work?

My confusion is further heightened by the recent incarnation of this "holiday." This year, as I believe has occurred often in years past, the various famous groundhogs didn't agree on the results of their predictions. Punxutawney Phil saw his shadow, while Buckeye Chuck didn't. Now, I know Phil is probably considered the more reliable source, as Punxutawney, PA, seems to be the epicenter of this Groundhog Day phenomenon, but it seems that the people behind the rodents, so to speak, should be able to agree on what this year will bring. As the poor groundhogs are no longer allowed to leave their natural homes of their own accord to predict the weather and are, instead, shoved into fake lodgings only to be ripped from them again for the show of February 2nd, I can't imagine the origins of this tradition remain in tact.

I wonder who decides what the "groundhog's" prediction is. Is it someone in the weather service? Someone in control of the groundhog? Someone in some significant government conspiracy trying to raise or lower our hopes for the year based on expectations of the weather? (I could keep going with this and have a lot of fun creating crazy conspiracies, but I'll stop.)

It seems to me that Groundhog Day is pointless. Also, the Punxutawney Groundhog Club's website seems to go too far in creating mystique behind the event. Just for the heck of it, I went to the "official" Groundhog Day website; under their FAQ's about Groundhog Day (http://www.groundhog.org/more-to-know/faq/), they have this list of answers:

1. Yes, Punxsutawney Phil is the only true weather forecasting groundhog. The others are just imposters.

2. There has been only one Punxsutawney Phil. Punxsutawney Phil gets his longevity from drinking "groundhog punch" (a secret recipe). One sip, which is administered every summer at the Groundhog Picnic, gives him seven more years of life.

3. On February 2nd, Phil comes out of his burrow on Gobbler's Knob, in front of thousands of faithful followers from all over the world, to predict the weather for the rest of the winter.

4. According to legend, if Punxsutawney Phil sees his shadow, there will be six more weeks of winter weather. If he does not see his shadow, there will be an early spring.

5. No, Punxsutawney Phil's forecasts are not made in advance by the Inner Circle. After Phil emerges from his burrow on February 2nd, he speaks to the Groundhog Club President in Groundhogese. His proclamation is then translated for the world.

6. The celebration of Groundhog Day began with the Germans, Pennsylvania's earliest settlers. They brought with them the legend of Candlemas Day, which states "For as the sun shines on Candlemas day, so far will the snow swirl in May...". The settlers found that groundhogs were plentiful and were the most intelligent and sensible animal to carry on the legend of Candlemas Day.

7. Punxsutawney held its first Groundhog Day in the 1800's. The first official trek to Gobbler's Knob made on February 2nd, 1887. In 2008 it will be the 122nd prediction.

8. So the story goes, Punxsutawney Phil was named after King Phillip. Prior to being called Phil, he was called Br'er Groundhog.


As far as I'm concerned, 2 and 5 are utter falsehoods, while some of the others seem a little suspicious. I realize that they're just trying to have fun, create an amusing event for those who are interested, and make some money for their town in what is probably the only draw for tourists that they have, but the whole "speaking" to the club president in "Grounhogese" element is simply ridiculous and leads me even further to wonder who actually writes the prediction. The pres reads the prediction from a scroll, which completely destroys the fantasy of poor Phil "talking" to anyone at that moment. *sigh* I just can't handle the ridiculousity. (Yep, I made up that word. If the groundhog people can do it, so can I!)

I think we should leave those suffering (probably spoiled except for on Feb 2) groundhogs alone and return to the original idea of Candlemas Day, as the GDC FAQ's explain it. Everyone would still have a different expectation for the weather of the remaining winter season, but that tradition seems much nicer than the one we've accepted.